Water Whirlpool MillTier 2
at 貓腳印松江店 RDO店冠賽
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-10-2
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1261
· median 1309
· range 1162–1311
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1219
Q3 1383
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | +26.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Mordred | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Whirlpool Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
