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Fire AetherwingTier 2
at GAMERSSHOP RDO STORE CHAMPIONSHIP
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evasive Positioning | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimble Longbowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |