EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 三咖啡店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.1% | 59.5% | 56.8% | 1416 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 74.3% | 57.4% | 60.7% | 1217 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 57.7% | 56.2% | 53.3% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 52.8% | 56.2% | 50.9% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 80.0% | 62.2% | 53.8% | 53.0% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 4 | 17.4% | 20 | 47.5% | 46.2% | 53.1% | 51.7% | 1335 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 8.7% | 9 | 61.1% | 53.1% | 52.2% | 50.9% | 1331 | — |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 52.0% | 49.8% | 1317 | — |
| 9 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 35.6% | 51.9% | 49.7% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 59.6% | 50.9% | 53.9% | 1307 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 37.9% | 50.0% | 44.5% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Whirlpool Mill | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1309 | — |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 61.4% | 49.1% | 55.6% | 1303 | — |
| 14 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.6% | 45.0% | 50.2% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Exalted Mordred | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 53.8% | 42.5% | 48.8% | 1023 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Fractal | 4 | 17.4% | 14 | 39.3% | 37.9% | 41.8% | 42.1% | 1349 | — |
| 17 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 36.1% | 37.3% | 44.3% | 1179 | ↓ low |