ArcaneTier 2
at 漫果子大直店5/9 RDO店冠賽
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.6%
avg ELO +7.8 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300
· median 1300
· range 1300–1300
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1258
Q3 1388
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
