Fire OblationTier 1
at 漫果子大直店5/9 RDO店冠賽
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406
· median 1406
· range 1348–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1258
Q3 1388
1543
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
