Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 漫果子大直店5/9 RDO店冠賽
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -5.3 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1416
· median 1416
· range 1416–1416
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1258
Q3 1388
1543
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
