EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Home-run RDO Store Championships. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Lorraine

55.0%

6.2% share · 8 matches

6.2% share · 12 matches

3rd

Wind Seiryuu

54.2%

12.5% share · 22 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	2	6.2%	12	70.8%	52.9%	55.9%	51.2%	1349	—
2	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	6.2%	8	62.5%	49.6%	55.0%	50.3%	1408	↑ top
3	Wind Seiryuu	4	12.5%	22	63.6%	48.8%	54.2%	49.6%	1428	↑ top
4	Fire Slimes	1	3.1%	6	58.3%	52.8%	53.3%	51.4%	1227	↓ low
5	Fire Exia	1	3.1%	5	60.0%	51.0%	51.7%	50.3%	1310	—
6	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	3.1%	6	58.3%	52.6%	51.3%	51.4%	1390	↑ top
7	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	3.1%	6	58.3%	51.9%	51.0%	50.8%	1259	↓ low
8	Fire Oblation	3	9.4%	16	46.9%	51.0%	50.9%	50.7%	1199	↓ low
9	Wind Byakko	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	50.4%	50.0%	50.6%	1220	↓ low
10	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	47.3%	49.6%	49.1%	1519	↑ top
11	Water Chess	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	46.7%	49.5%	48.9%	1397	↑ top
12	Water Genbu	2	6.2%	10	45.0%	50.5%	49.3%	50.3%	1214	↓ low
13	Water Fractal	2	6.2%	10	55.0%	50.3%	48.4%	49.9%	1380	↑ top
14	Water Umbra Diana	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	49.3%	48.0%	49.8%	1236	↓ low
15	Water Crux Mage	1	3.1%	5	60.0%	53.8%	46.7%	51.4%	1173	↓ low
16	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	9.4%	17	41.2%	48.6%	46.2%	49.5%	1330	—
17	Wind Shadowstrike	1	3.1%	5	20.0%	49.6%	44.7%	50.3%	1160	↓ low
18	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	6.2%	10	25.0%	47.0%	42.9%	49.0%	1241	↓ low
19	Water Aetherwing	2	6.2%	10	40.0%	48.1%	42.7%	48.8%	1379	↑ top