Fire ExiaTier 2
at 暖角落 GA RDO 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
1-5-3
overall winrate
27.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1292
· median 1292
· range 1175–1409
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1118
Q1 1239
Q3 1387
1568
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
