Fire Crux MageTier 2
at TableCon Constructed Event
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1290
· median 1290
· range 1248–1332
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1227
Q3 1326
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
