Fire EruptingTier 1
at TableCon Constructed Event
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.1%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
58.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1126
· median 1126
· range 1126–1126
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1227
Q3 1326
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
