Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at TableCon Constructed Event
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
11-7-0
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1250
· range 1157–1269
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1227
Q3 1326
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
