Water AlliesTier 2
at TableCon Constructed Event
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1356
· range 1087–1624
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1227
Q3 1326
1633
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 15.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
