← Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024
SlimesTier 2
at Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024
decks
3
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-6-1
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1314
· range 1134–1394
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1185
Q3 1305
1452
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Neos | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Neos | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
