← Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Brisbane Regionals 6th July 2024
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1251
· range 1251–1251
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1095
Q1 1185
Q3 1305
1452
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Neos | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
