← Agora Hobby Store Championship
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Agora Hobby Store Championship
decks
4
(11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
4-8-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1173
· median 1179
· range 1112–1220
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1198
Q3 1331
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.4 |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
