← Agora Hobby Store Championship
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Agora Hobby Store Championship
decks
7
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-10-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1269
· range 1213–1484
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1198
Q3 1331
1624
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.9% | +4.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
