← Agora Hobby Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Agora Hobby Store Championship
decks
3
(8.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
7-3-1
overall winrate
68.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.7%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1166
· median 1189
· range 1062–1248
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1198
Q3 1331
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.9% | +5.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
