← Agora Hobby Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at Agora Hobby Store Championship
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
1-1-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1198
Q3 1331
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
