EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MRC Store Championship!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 20.0% | 17 | 79.4% | 64.8% | 60.2% | 56.1% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 53.8% | 54.2% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Slimes | 2 | 8.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 49.1% | 1296 | — |
| 4 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 55.0% | 44.0% | 51.0% | 48.3% | 1428 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 4 | 16.0% | 17 | 47.1% | 49.9% | 49.6% | 50.5% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 49.0% | 49.5% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 8.0% | 10 | 55.0% | 52.7% | 48.0% | 47.5% | 1398 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.1% | 47.3% | 47.9% | 1316 | — |
| 9 | Water Ravishing Mill | 3 | 12.0% | 13 | 34.6% | 43.4% | 43.7% | 46.4% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.6% | 43.5% | 47.7% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 3 | 12.0% | 13 | 26.9% | 40.5% | 42.2% | 46.5% | 1309 | — |