EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobby Outpost MRC SC.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 27.3% | 9 | 61.1% | 52.8% | 54.3% | 51.7% | 1312 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.7% | 52.8% | 50.0% | 1322 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 41.7% | 52.5% | 48.7% | 1505 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.7% | 50.3% | 54.4% | 1571 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.1% | 48.6% | 51.7% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 18.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 38.4% | 43.8% | 45.9% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.5% | 42.2% | 47.6% | 1138 | ↓ low |