Fire AggroTier 2
at Paradox Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.4%
avg ELO -16.9 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1253
· median 1253
· range 1253–1253
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1285
Q3 1400
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
