Fire EruptingTier 2
at Paradox Store Championship
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
4-8-2
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1436
· range 1064–1511
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1285
Q3 1400
1525
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.2% | -1.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
