Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Paradox Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.2%
avg ELO -7.6 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1525
· median 1525
· range 1525–1525
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1285
Q3 1400
1525
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
