Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Paradox Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |