Water Crux LorraineTier 1
at Paradox Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.3% | +7.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 |