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Water AlliesTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 6/20
decks
2
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-2-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
58.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1340–1420
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1205
Q3 1375
1652
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 18.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
