Fire ArcaneTier 2
at CMD Regional Championship
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-10-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1207
· range 1133–1381
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1205
Q3 1378
1599
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 38.9% | -5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -0.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
