Fire Crux MageTier 1
at CMD Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 60.9% | +5.8 |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Crux Sight, Focused Flames, Honorable Vanguard. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Viridian Protective Trinket, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Meltdown | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 |