Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at CMD Regional Championship
decks
5
(15.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
17-10-6
overall winrate
60.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1372
· median 1369
· range 1303–1454
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1205
Q3 1378
1599
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 61.1% | +5.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -3.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.0% | +13.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
