Fire EruptingTier 2
at CMD Regional Championship
decks
3
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1378
· range 1150–1404
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1205
Q3 1378
1599
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.1% | -7.6 |
| Wind Allies | 15.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
