Wind AlliesTier 2
at CMD Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.1% | -13.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Vanitas | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Wind Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Esteemed Knight, Song of Nurturing. Losers more often ran: Aesan Protector.
Show all 52 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inspiring Call | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |