Water AlliesTier 1
at Texas MRC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.3% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 65.8% | +9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.3% | +8.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |