Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Texas MRC Regionals
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-7-5
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1278
· range 1029–1518
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1212
Q3 1429
1638
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.3% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 20.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.4% | +19.5 |
| Water Allies | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.2 |
| Water Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
