Water NeosTier 2
at Texas MRC Regionals
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1212
Q3 1429
1638
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
