Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Texas MRC Regionals
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-7-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1274
· median 1244
· range 1152–1428
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1212
Q3 1429
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Water Allies | 8.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
