Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Card Merchant Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 21.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 60.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.6% | +10.9 |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jewel of Enlightenment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |