Water AlliesTier 1
at Card Merchant Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -9.2 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -6.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.0% | +12.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.8% | +14.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Trained Sharpshooter, Inspiring Call, Seeking Shot. Losers more often ran: Lunete, Frostbinder Priest.
Show all 68 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bubble Mage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jewel of Enlightenment | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smash with Obelisk | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |