Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Card Merchant Regionals
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1275–1275
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1182
Q3 1398
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 21.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
