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Wind AlliesTier 1

at Card Merchant Regionals

decks
4 (12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20 12-8-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.4% avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
52.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1377 · median 1401 · range 1137–1570 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
989 Q1 1182 Q3 1398 1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 21.9% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 61.9% +6.3
Fire Crux Mage 15.6% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.4% -0.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 15.6% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 46.3% -2.8
Fire Umbra Ranger 6.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.0% -2.9
Wind Beast 6.2% 0
Fire Aggro 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Fire Arcane 3.1% 0
Fire Erupting 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.2
Fire Lorraine 3.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.1% +14.6
Water Astra Cleric 3.1% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 3.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +1.3
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.1% 0
Wind Tonoris 3.1% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Esteemed Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Heavy Swing +1.00 1 0 0
Weaponsmith -1.00 0 1 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Sword of Seeking -1.00 0 1 0
Life Essence Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Trained Hawk -1.00 0 1 0
Favorable Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/653/archetypes/Wind Allies