Wind AlliesTier 1
at Card Merchant Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 21.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |