Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Card Merchant Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 21.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 39.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Beast | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.8% | -10.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Tonoris | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliburn of Silencing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractured Crown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Oasis Trading Post | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thousand Refractions | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |