EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at REGIONALS.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.8% | 9 | 77.8% | 61.6% | 59.6% | 56.4% | 1558 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Rogue | 1 | 3.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 56.8% | 57.5% | 55.9% | 1252 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 58.1% | 57.1% | 57.7% | 1108 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 7.7% | 12 | 58.3% | 57.0% | 54.5% | 53.9% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 7.7% | 14 | 60.7% | 55.5% | 54.2% | 52.8% | 1286 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 7.7% | 13 | 76.9% | 65.5% | 51.7% | 50.1% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Allies | 6 | 23.1% | 33 | 48.5% | 48.3% | 50.4% | 50.1% | 1333 | — |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 7.7% | 15 | 50.0% | 53.1% | 50.2% | 51.3% | 1304 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 57.1% | 51.9% | 48.7% | 48.2% | 1599 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 45.1% | 47.1% | 47.1% | 1282 | — |
| 11 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 11.5% | 19 | 39.5% | 43.2% | 46.3% | 47.3% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.8% | 46.0% | 46.2% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 44.8% | 46.0% | 46.2% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 7.7% | 13 | 26.9% | 38.6% | 44.2% | 47.0% | 1194 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 37.6% | 43.6% | 45.1% | 1244 | — |
| 16 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 3.8% | 7 | 21.4% | 33.5% | 43.3% | 44.2% | 1129 | ↓ low |