← Mercurial Heart Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 90.0% | 72.1% | 59.2% | 59.1% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 29.4% | 14 | 67.9% | 64.1% | 55.7% | 56.2% | 1246 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 80.0% | 67.0% | 54.4% | 55.7% | 1250 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 62.5% | 53.0% | 53.2% | 50.9% | 1374 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 66.7% | 60.1% | 47.3% | 47.8% | 1517 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Neos | 2 | 11.8% | 8 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 45.6% | 43.8% | 1288 | — |
| 7 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 39.3% | 45.0% | 45.5% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Neos | 1 | 5.9% | 5 | 30.0% | 39.3% | 45.0% | 45.5% | 1114 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 43.0% | 43.6% | 1292 | — |
| 10 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.2% | 42.0% | 44.0% | 1060 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.9% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.5% | 41.7% | 44.8% | 1235 | — |
| 12 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 5.9% | 6 | 0.0% | 21.8% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1313 | — |