← Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals (ONLINE)

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals (ONLINE). EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Crux Lorraine
54.3%
4.2% share · 11 matches
↓ low
1st
Fire Luxem Assassin
57.5%
2.1% share · 6 matches
↓ low
3rd
Fire Crux Merlin
53.8%
4.2% share · 12 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.1% 6 75.0% 58.1% 57.5% 54.2% 1284 ↓ low
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 4.2% 11 59.1% 54.7% 54.3% 52.3% 1243 ↓ low
3 Fire Crux Merlin 2 4.2% 12 58.3% 50.6% 53.8% 51.0% 1444 ↑ top
4 Fire Slimes 3 6.2% 18 63.9% 54.4% 52.9% 51.4% 1399 ↑ top
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 2.1% 5 40.0% 49.4% 52.2% 52.6% 1230 ↓ low
6 Slimes 10 20.8% 46 52.2% 51.1% 51.5% 51.1% 1354 —
7 Wind Allies 6 12.5% 29 50.0% 45.8% 50.6% 48.1% 1422 ↑ top
8 Wind Shadowstrike 3 6.2% 18 52.8% 49.8% 50.0% 49.3% 1443 ↑ top
9 Water Ravishing Mill 3 6.2% 16 53.1% 48.2% 49.7% 49.1% 1374 —
10 Fire Erupting 2 4.2% 12 41.7% 51.5% 49.6% 51.2% 1337 —
11 Water Allies 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 49.5% 48.9% 49.7% 1270 ↓ low
12 Fire Aggro 6 12.5% 30 51.7% 52.0% 48.1% 49.9% 1274 ↓ low
13 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 51.2% 47.3% 49.6% 1361 —
14 Fire Crux Hybrid 4 8.3% 15 36.7% 48.2% 44.7% 48.9% 1323 —
15 Wind Beast 1 2.1% 5 20.0% 45.1% 41.1% 47.2% 1452 ↑ top
16 Fire Diana 1 2.1% 5 0.0% 39.0% 38.0% 45.5% 1107 ↓ low
17 Fire Neos Tonoris 1 2.1% 2 0.0% 42.0% 33.3% 42.0% 1426 ↑ top