Fire EruptingTier 3
at 北部地區賽
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -8.1 per match
expected value
42.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1158
· median 1158
· range 1158–1158
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
975
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 27.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 26.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Erupting decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
