Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 北部地區賽
decks
3
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-9-2
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
42.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1204
· median 1148
· range 1135–1331
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
975
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 27.8% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 26.2% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 26.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
