Fire SlimesTier 2
at Ludo Regionals
decks
5
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
10-8-8
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1399
· median 1392
· range 1161–1630
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1163
Q3 1353
1685
60% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.1% | +2.3 |
| Wind Allies | 16.3% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.5% | -7.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.0% | +7.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
