Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Ludo Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.7% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 60.3% | +4.7 |
| Wind Allies | 16.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 40.2% | -4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 64.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 7 | 3-1-3 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 60.7% | +5.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.9% | +11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powercell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |