Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at Ludo Regionals
decks
1
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-3-1
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1163
Q3 1353
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 16.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
