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Water NeosTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/18
decks
2
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.9%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1374
· median 1374
· range 1367–1381
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1000
Q1 1203
Q3 1380
1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
