← Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/18
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Local 7/18
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Beast | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Avalon, Cursed Isle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temporal Spectrometer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |